The Republican Party is reaching the end of a transformation nearly a decade long. As Donald Trump prepares to make his third run at the presidency, only 33% of Americans view him favorably, yet that percentage is higher than any of his Republican competitors. Per the same polling, 48% of Republicans believe that “we need a leader who is willing to break some rules if that’s what it takes to set things right” in the U.S., illustrating their desire for outsiders who are willing to take charge to lead them [1]. These mindsets indicate that the party is largely sympathetic to authoritarian rule, an alarming revelation that Trump has utilized in his divisive rhetoric.

Through the Tea Party Movement—a right-wing movement created to oppose Barack Obama’s policies—and Trump’s rising influence, the Republican Party has permanently transformed to favor populism and a strongman leader above traditionally conservative issues like tax cuts and defense spending, moving away from George W. Bush’s policies that emphasized compassionate conservatism toward Trump’s reliance on nationalist ideals.

George W. Bush does not matter to today’s Republican Party. Considering that his presidency ended just 15 years ago, this seems bizarre. However, a man who was “disgusted” by the events of January 6, 2021 and believes Joe Biden is “off to a good start” certainly defies the current Republican ideology [2]. Bush’s policies alone are enough to separate him from the party of Trump, but his brand of conservatism is fundamentally at odds with his party’s new direction. I characterize Bush’s political presence as “Bush Republicanism.”

A central aspect of this doctrine is aggressively hawkish and interventionist foreign policy. Notably, Bush was open about his determination to fight wars beyond the bounds of immediate U.S. national interests. His 2002 State of the Union address called nations like Iraq the “axis of evil” and declared that “the price of freedom … is never too high” [3]. In a move to capitalize on the unity felt by Americans after 9/11, Bush endeavored to rally not only his base but all Americans behind a war that took place on the opposite side of the globe. His commitment to protecting American security expanded far beyond US borders and encompassed any state that was perceived as a threat, no matter how small or how much of an advantage the U.S. had in a potential conflict.

This predisposition toward conflict was pervasive in Bush’s foreign policy decisions, especially those surrounding the Iraq War. The invasion of Iraq officially hinged on the potential presence of weapons of mass destruction in the country, but Bush’s administration put an equal focus on painting the U.S. as a country fighting against evil and for the righteous value of democracy—the only force that could save itself and the world from a rising terrorist threat [4]. War became preventive under Bush, no longer serving to protect the U.S. in the short term but instead attempting to maintain its power over time.

Just as his foreign policy was proactive in advancing U.S. national interests abroad, Bush’s doctrine of compassionate conservatism broadened the scope of the American values he promoted domestically. While still advocating for a limited government, compassionate conservatism aimed to achieve a decent standard of living for Americans. Bush pushed for people to leave welfare by finding employment and to help the poor through charities backed by religion [5]. He stressed the ability of education to provide social mobility and fought for the No Child Left Behind Act which increased the standards public schools needed to reach to receive federal funding [6]. Ultimately, compassionate conservatism was a call to Americans for increased self-responsibility that used the crutches of religious righteousness and traditional American values to appeal to the masses.

Bush’s policies enabled him to draw in the nation’s wealthiest donors. Courting its largest contributors with lavish gifts, Bush’s campaign saw hundreds of millions of dollars in donations from a group of over 200 business executives known as the Pioneers [7]. Their like-mindedness on issues such as decreasing government regulations and lowering taxes made it easy for them to commit to supporting Bush’s compassionate conservative agenda that pressured individuals to pull themselves out of poverty with limited government intervention. Dick Cheney, Bush’s vice president, served as defense secretary and CEO of the oil giant Haliburton, further increasing the appeal of the Bush ticket to corporate donors. By the 2004 election cycle, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs paired with Bank of America and Citigroup as his top financial contributors [8].

With a variety of financial titans on his side, an agenda that limited government and championed individual responsibility, and foreign policy that sought to preserve U.S. hegemony by attacking anything that it saw as evil, Bush created his political brand. These factors formed Bush Republicanism, which began to die off soon after he left office.

The Tea Party Movement of the early 2010s was the first sign of visible change in the Republican Party after Bush’s presidency. While it was initially popularized primarily for its attack on Obama’s policies, the Tea Party attacked Bush’s line of Republicans as well, criticizing the bailout of Wall Street banks, federal intervention in states, and the multicultural trends present in the Republican Party during Bush’s time in office [9]. The Tea Party Movement rejected Bush Republicanism’s orientation toward elites and attempts to help all Americans escape poverty and increased its message’s resonance by harkening back to an America of old that actively opposed big government.

While the Tea Party’s impact peaked during the 2010 midterm elections [10], a new figure adopted its populist nostalgia: Donald Trump. His campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” is perhaps the most glaring sign of Trump’s veneration of an imagined golden age for the U.S. Though Trump has never stated exactly when America was great, his message gripped the Tea Party base. With calls to end Obamacare, curtail illegal immigration, and restrict abortion, Trump amplified Tea Party ideals and expanded their application. Coupled with the populist, nationalist bent to his campaigning, Trump’s policies signaled a seismic shift in the Republican Party.

The Bush Republicans’ doctrine of compassionate conservatism and promoting American values worldwide is gone. Instead, Trump’s inflammatory language and nationalist, isolationist sensibilities have taken over the Republican Party’s rhetoric. From Trump’s characterization of immigrants as “poisoning the blood” of the U.S. to his consistent quoting of Vladimir Putin, the sympathetic and sanitized image of the Bush administration has been cast aside in favor of authoritarian populism [11]. By expanding upon the Tea Party’s platform that puts the U.S. before international matters and exploiting his status as an outsider, Trump has made himself the GOP’s populist leader and left Bush Republicanism far behind.

With the Republican Party now focused on Trump as its leader, many of Bush Republicanism’s top supporters have attempted to decrease his influence. Nikki Haley, Trump’s longest-lasting challenger in the Republican primaries, received more than double Trump’s funding in support of her candidacy, courting the same wealthy business interests that once funded Bush [12]. This funding disparity and the continued efforts of the Never Trump coalition demonstrate the disconnect among Republicans. The coalition, a movement that initially aimed to stop Trump, now specifically opposes candidates supported by Trump who take on his ideology [13]. It incorporates both Democratic campaigns and disaffected Republicans in an effort to roll back the changes Trump brought to the GOP. It has spawned super PACs with billionaire backing and mass attacks on Republican candidates who follow Trump’s ideology. While it had success preventing Republican domination in the 2022 midterms, the movement has failed to bring the Republican Party of old to any electoral success.

The Republican primaries have indicated that the Never Trump movement, while successful in smaller-scale elections against Trump imitators like 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, lacks the firepower to dissuade the vast majority of Republicans from their support of the root of the party’s ideology. Trump has built a following that accepts his rhetoric and beliefs, and even a mass movement against him is unlikely to threaten his core audience’s support for him. 45% of Americans who view Trump favorably indicate that almost nothing he could do would lose him their support.

Today’s Republican Party is not the party of Bush. Trump successfully distanced himself from welfare, interventionism, and Republican elites despite the many attempts by the mainstream media and supporters of Bush’s compassionate conservatism to reign him in. Bush himself now thinks of the GOP as “isolationist, protectionist, and to a certain extent, nativist” [14]. Regardless of the outcome of the 2024 general election, the Republican Party has changed forever. Bush Republicanism was a fairly standard conservative ideology seeking to cut taxes, spend big on the military, and decrease the size of the federal government. Its replacement, Trumpism, will certainly not have the same legacy. It exchanged a stable ideology for a loose cannon of buzzwords—and Republicans are content to go along for the ride.