Background

In the midst of a serious security crisis, Burkina Faso finds itself entangled in a power struggle between Western and Eastern influences, with France and Russia as the primary contenders. Ever since the mysterious killing of popular leader Thomas Sankara in the 1980s— for which French involvement has always been suspected —Burkina Faso has undergone periods of both oppressive dictatorship and remarkable instability [1]. Although Sankara hoped to establish a nation independent of French influence and foreign assistance, Burkina Faso instead developed into a country extremely reliant on foreign assistance. This divide created a particularly tense situation as the country continues to deal with successive conflicts in its northern regions.

Armed Insurgency

Armed conflict and domestic terrorism have ultimately intensified within Burkina Faso, adding up to more than 6,000 deaths related to jihadist terrorist groups in 2024 [2]. These terrorist groups are linked to both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. However, the identity of these groups is more complex, with many of them having ties to other domestic militant Islamist groups, including the terrorist group Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin [3]. Often, these jihadist groups recruit from youth within Burkina Faso who have increasingly faced dire economic circumstances. In particular, unemployment has increased significantly due to economic mismanagement within the country. [4] One tribe with increased efforts of jihadist recruitment is the Fulani tribe, who, as a result of government policies, experienced a declining ability to live as nomadic herders [5]. The jihadist threat within Burkina Faso largely emerged because terrorist groups were easily recruited from the local population, often capitalizing on local dissatisfaction with the current regime as a consequence of ineffective government policies in administering rural communities in the north.

Monetary and Military Shifts

In the past, Burkina Faso largely relied upon France to aid its domestic response to the jihadist terror movement. Specifically, France has assisted Burkina Faso with its counterinsurgency efforts since 2014. Its mission, Operation Bharkhane, focused on eradicating jihadist groups throughout the Sahel region of West Africa. This relationship was just one part of the many agreements the country had with France, including a monetary union and close diplomatic relations. In 2023, however, Burkina Faso expelled all French military personnel from the country due to a deterioration of relations with the Western European country, even though France had wanted to maintain a certain amount of military involvement within Burkina Faso for an indefinite amount of time [6]. In addition, French diplomats were expelled in 2023 for supposedly participating in activities that undermined the Burkinabe government [7]. The expulsion of French military personnel and diplomats introduced a new period in Burkina Faso, where economic, military, and political relations with its former colonial power were slowly becoming sidelined. These policies are a response to successive French policies to control the political and economic situation within Burkina Faso. 

For decades, France had a certain level of control of Burkina Faso’s monetary situation through their establishment of the CFA Franc zone, This monetary union between numerous West African countries and France, stipulated that these countries maintain their monetary reserves within French treasuries [8]. This monetary policy resulted in an economy that increasingly favored French imports instead of attempting to rely on domestic production, which maintained the historical level of dependence on France that existed within the country and neighboring regions. This dependence on France has made it difficult for Burkina Faso to sustainably develop local communities due to economic policies that favor foreign influences instead of local development. 

The Fall of French Influence

As of recent, the ruling military junta in Burkina Faso has accused France of attempting to minimize the sovereignty of Burkina Faso for their own gain by influencing the makeup of the Burkinabe government. In the past, France has practiced a policy elevating certain ethnic groups within Burkina Faso, therefore creating domestic conflict, which in many ways contributed to the civil strife seen today [9]. Past French policies included attempts to divide Tribal populations in order to make governance easier and demonstrate that France still exerts a neocolonial influence on the nation [10]. The Burkina Faso government has also accused France of ineffective attempts to counter Islamic insurgencies in the north, which led to the current head of state Ibrahim Traore demanding French military withdrawal from the country [11]. 

The current shift away from French influence within the country is a response to these neocolonialist policies, thus ultimately leading the French government to lose the support of Burkina Faso. The Burkinabe public now sees French involvement in the country in a negative light, with reported multiple anti-French demonstrations within the country in the past year [12]. These developments within Burkina Faso demonstrate that French influence within their former colonial holdings in West Africa is diminishing. These nations are beginning to shift beyond economic and political systems that place France in the forefront, instead opting to embrace other nations in the process.

Emergence of New Allies

In particular, Russia has emerged as a potential successor to French influence within Burkina Faso and other Western African nations. Burkina Faso increasingly relies upon Russian military support to combat their insurgency issues following the expulsion of French military aid. Russia, in turn, provides overseas expeditionary troops, known as the Africa Corps, to Burkina Faso to help manage the insurgency situation within the Northern Sahel region [13]. Popular support for Russian involvement has increased within the country as an erosion of support for the French gave way to demonstrations supporting Russian intervention within Burkina Faso [14]. This new Russian involvement within Burkina Faso stands in sharp contrast with the overall estrangement that Russia has had with many nations following its unilateral invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and displays a new strategy by Moscow in making inroads in West Africa. 

Broader Implications

Simultaneously, the sudden emergence of a dictatorial regime following a September 2022 coup which left a military Junta in power has led to the withdrawal of significant amounts of Western investments from the country [15]. Although the new leadership, under Head of State Ibrahim Traore, pushed for a minimization of French and other Western economic reliance, their alternatives are not necessarily more beneficial for the country. Although this new Russian investment and support within Burkina Faso represents a potential way of recouping any loss in foreign investment following the French withdrawal, it is unlikely that the Russian investment within the country will be significant. In the recent past, Russia has made concrete inroads within numerous Sahel countries, although these attempts have been minimally funded due to the overwhelming cost of the Russo-Ukrainian war shouldered on Russia. Compared to past Western investments, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to provide significant, long-term economic aid to Burkina Faso [16]. Regardless of this, Burkina Faso has seen much celebration in an attempt to glorify and highlight this newfound relationship with Russia. However, Russia has yet to demonstrate whether its involvement will consist of concrete economic investment that will reshape the future of Burkina Faso in the long run.

The situation within Burkina Faso represents how Russia is attempting to make real inroads within Africa in the coming years. Russia is making use of the instability and conflict within the Sahel region to gain a level of influence that can rival France and other Western powers in the region [17]. These developments represent a marked shift in the ability of these African countries to choose their own allies; the expulsion of France from Burkina Faso is just one example of a general distancing between Western Africa and their traditional allies. The foreign powers that once controlled the economic and military policy of these nations through neo-colonial policies find themselves frozen out of the region due to their inability to handle the growing instability caused by the jihadist movement. In the long run, however, it is unlikely that Russian military support will be able to handle the growing jihadist violence any better than their French counterparts. 

Future Outlook

Combined with a decreasing ability to attract foreign investment due to unstable leadership, this could leave Burkina Faso and other unstable Sahel nations in a tense geopolitical situation without a clear silver lining. Particularly in the case of Burkina Faso, without first addressing the domestic issues present within the nation, there is unlikely to be a significant improvement in the armed insurgency present in the country. Given that the jihadist issue stems from broad dissatisfaction within the nation's population due to the complete erosion of any social support in rural communities, the first step towards stabilization should be broad domestic investment into the rural populace. Possible domestic solutions could include addressing issues such as low employment and lack of educational opportunities, thereby offering an alternative future to Burkina Faso's large young adult population. Concrete investments into the rural regions of Burkina Faso are needed to pull youth away from joining the jihadist insurgency.

Such an effort may require a level of international cooperation and investment into the nation which is currently untenable. The current geopolitical situation has sidelined a significant portion of the international community and therefore limited their willingness to invest in Burkina Faso. As a consequence of developing their relationship with Russia and other foreign powers, Burkina Faso placed themselves on one side of a larger geopolitical divide, therefore limiting their ability to attract critical foreign investment needed to address their outstanding domestic issues. The complexity of the current geopolitical situation in Burkina Faso combined with the internal political instability posed by the ever-present threat of jihadists makes governing Burkina Faso particularly challenging.