Across a variety of metrics, the US economy is doing well under President Joseph Biden. Voters, however, are struggling to see the benefits of his so-called “Bidenomics,” evidenced by the president’s dismal approval ratings [1]. As we approach the November election, Biden’s campaign has chosen to center his economic policies. His team will need to shift public perception via stronger advocacy and appeals to swing voters in order to ease voters’ economic concerns and ensure his success. 

What is “Bidenomics?”

Joe Biden’s economic paradigm, dubbed “Bidenomics,” is designed to grow the United States economy from the middle out. The White House describes the plan as focusing on three pillars: public investment, empowering and educating workers, and promoting competition [2]. Bidenomics contrasts with former President Ronald Reagan’s “trickle down economics,” which hoped to see economic growth from benefits like tax cuts for upper-class Americans that would “trickle down” to the rest of the nation [3]. 

Bidenomics was built from bills Biden helped pass throughout his first term: the Inflation Reduction Act or IRA (which includes government investment with a focus on a green economy), the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act (which bolsters US semiconductor manufacturing), and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (which uses unspent COVID relief funds to modernize and improve public infrastructure). Luckily for Biden, these policies have been effective. They have collectively attracted almost $500 billion in private investment in these industries [4]. Tax incentives from the IRA and CHIPS, for example, have driven both private and public investment in manufacturing.

Specific policies aside, President Biden has a number of impressive statistics to put on his record. 13 million jobs have been created since Biden took office, unemployment is at a 50 year low, and inflation is also down [5].

How do voters feel?

While America’s economy appears to be thriving on a macro-level, voters are unhappy with how much they are having to spend on a daily basis. Polls have shown that 30% of Americans believe the economy is in recession, though that is certainly not the case [6]. Voters remain concerned about inflation, housing costs, and a general lack of normalcy, especially post-pandemic. This disconnect between voter appraisal of Bidenomics and nationwide economic conditions has created a substantial hurdle for the president’s re-election campaign. 

For one, consumers falsely correlate their cost of living with the health of the economy. Americans have assumed higher prices for food, gas, and other essential commodities are attributed to higher levels of inflation. However, inflation is a somewhat natural phenomenon and voters should expect the cost of goods to rise over time. Biden is therefore not entirely to blame for more expensive groceries and strained pocketbooks, though he still needs to address these concerns. While prices seem to be high now, those numbers don’t say a whole lot about whether or not inflation (the rate at which prices continue to rise) is high or low [7]. Biden’s efforts at incentivizing competition, encouraging domestic production, and spurring private investment have contributed to fighting inflation, reducing the inflation rate to 3.1% as of last November [8]. 

Similarly, voters blamed Biden for oil price spikes throughout 2022. In reality, these spikes occurred as a result of factors including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (since other nations decided to sanction the one of the world’s largest oil producers) and generally low levels of oil production from states in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) [9]. Biden actually made an attempt to control these high prices by increasing the supply of oil and releasing billions of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (the United State’s emergency supply of oil) [10]. Though this move was not wholly effective, gas prices were within fifty cents of their price from when he first took office at the end of February this year.

So, to the extent that Bidenomics has slowed inflation and helped cool oil prices, the president deserves some credit, but Biden’s campaign still needs to pay more attention to voters’ daily lives to attract voters that are on the fence.

How should Biden move forward?

The November election will be a referendum on Biden’s economic performance. It’s easy for Americans to examine the state of the nation to determine whether an incumbent is worthy of re-election. It is of the utmost importance that the president is able to communicate the successes of his economic policies. The statistics are on Biden’s side; he’s now dealing with a perception issue. Instead of focusing on aggregate statistics, the president should prioritize thinking about how his policies affect the average American. The issue with flaunting his economic record, impressive as it may be, is that Biden appears to lack the emotional connection voters want to see. Americans want to hear that their president understands their struggles, has worked to fix them, but also knows the job is not yet done. This position is not an indefensible one, either. The president can surely demonstrate the way he’s benefitted individual Americans, like citing the fact that less than 16 percent of part-time workers cannot find full-time work [11]. Yes, these are statistics, but they will have more impact on an individual voter than another calculation of the gross domestic product or unemployment rate.

Second, the president needs to direct his messaging toward independents and swing voters. In 2024, independent voters will be key. As of January, a USA Today poll found that 50% of 1,000 independent voters believed that the economy was either in a recession or depression, while there was no risk of a recession at all. Additionally, swing voters struggle pointing out what Biden has done for the economy [12]. In Arizona, for example, voters may acknowledge Biden’s success in incentivizing public investment and bringing the unemployment rate down, but they are having trouble understanding why their gas prices and rent remain high [13]. The difficulty of getting Democratic voters on board with Bidenomics is nothing compared to the difficulty of convincing those on the fence that the president’s policies have been effective. President Biden has used investments (from the IRA, CHIPS Act, etc.) strategically to target red states and, to a lesser extent, swing states [14]. By continuing to grow the job market in these states, Biden will be able to attract stronger support among those who are already on board with Bidenomics.

Of course, an improved economy will not be the silver bullet for Biden’s electoral success. The incumbent faces a number of hurdles, including young voters’ opposition to his handling of the Gaza conflict and concerns about his age. In fact, some may argue that nothing will really change the close nature of the 2024 race: Democrats will side with Biden, Republicans will not, and the disengaged voters will not bat an eye no matter what [15]. However, given Bidenomics’ potential for success, none of these facts are signs that Biden should jump ship and campaign around a different issue. President Biden has time before the next election, and he needs to use it wisely.