On October 1, 2024, Mexico swore in its first female president: Claudia Sheinbaum. She won by a landslide victory, with the largest number of votes of any candidate in Mexican history [1]. Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, has long been a loyal ally and mentee of Mexico’s former president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Running with the country’s largest left-wing party, Morena, Sheinbaum has been hailed by political forces both domestically and internationally as a hero of progressivism and someone who will usher Mexico into a “Golden Age.” But behind this illusion of progress lies the wreckage of Mexico’s liberalism. Throughout her political career, she has repeatedly been an apologist for dictators both within and outside Latin America, as well as an opponent of free trade. Sheinbaum’s rise to power is a worrying sign for both the people of Mexico and its democracy, as well as its largest and most important trading partner, the United States, particularly on the heels of a Donald Trump victory. 

The issue of judicial reform within Mexican politics is an issue that consumed the last few months of AMLO’s presidency. This reform was spearheaded by a consequential policy that called for a complete reshaping of Mexico's judicial system. In addition to the firing of 7,000 judges, a section of the bill changed the process of becoming a judge from appointment to a popular voting system. Although this policy appears democratic, it would in actuality make judges more partial to the country's opinions rather than the interpretation of the law [2]. In addition to these concerns, this new system of courts could pose a danger to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, which is Mexico's foremost free trade agreement with the United States. Chapter fourteen of USMCA states that it is necessary “for foreign investors to be protected by impartial courts within all countries” [3]. Mexico’s new reform poses a significant risk to this idea, and thus a worrying sign for the future of trade between Mexico and the U.S. Although Sheinbaum attempted to distance herself from these reforms during the first month of her presidency, she has since shown signs of doubling down. Most recently, she sponsored a bill proposed by her party, Morena, stating that “constitutional amendments cannot be challenged in courts,” which attempted to restrain the Supreme Court's power when it came to addressing the constitutionality of her predecessor’s reforms [4]. Considering these recent developments on the issues of trade and the judiciary, the entire free world should be concerned with Sheinbaum’s vision for Mexico.

At the beginning of her presidency, she introduced a cabinet that is antithetical to any ideas of free trade. Regarding the issue of manufacturing, Sheinbaum’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard claimed, “Next year, God willing, we are going to start making microchips in Mexico. Of course, they [are] not yet the most advanced chips, but we are going to start producing them here” [5]. Furthermore, Sheinbaum herself has claimed that most new manufacturing taking place in Mexico going forward should be with “primarily Mexican companies” showcasing her strong allegiance to domestic manufacturing and hesitancy towards foreign production [6]. 

Nicolas Maduro, Miguel Diaz Canel, and Vladimir Putin. These are the names of three of the men invited to Sheinbaum’s inauguration in early October of this year [7]. Nicolas Maduro, the strongman leader of Venezuela, holds one of the worst human rights records of the twenty-first century. With a humanitarian crisis that extends beyond Caracas, Maduro has caused an exodus of over one million people, famine, and the imprisonment of political opponents [8]. Diaz Canel, the president of Cuba, is no stranger to political repression or suppression of the press himself. With a record similar to Maduro’s, he has caused some of the worst reports of torture and extreme mistreatment within Cuba’s prison system [9]. Vladimir Putin, the dictator of Russia, is responsible for the killing of up to one million people throughout Ukraine and Syria, as well as Russian citizens. Sheinbaum has expressed her admiration for these leaders, calling Maduro an “inspirational leader,” Diaz Canel a “visionary head of state,” and Vladimir Putin a “strong person, who gets things done” [10]. If this is who Sheinbaum praises, the United States should be very concerned about the foreign policy that Sheinbaum would pursue and the anti-American ideology it could entail. If these are the types of people she idolizes, there should also be concern about Mexico’s own democracy and its potential democratic backsliding.

With the recent presidential victory of Donald Trump, Sheinbaum faces a challenge that her predecessor did not have. President-elect Trump, who made mass deportations a hallmark of his campaign, will have a very delicate relationship with Mexico's leadership [11]. The deportation program, which could affect up to eleven million people within the United States, could heavily overwhelm the Mexican economy. Sheinbaum has maintained what she calls a “cordial relationship” with Trump, yet many experts warn that this could be the beginning of a tumultuous relationship [12]. Another one of Trump’s main campaign promises is the introduction of tariffs on imported goods, a policy that would not only devastate Mexico’s economy but also violate Trump’s own trade agreement that he negotiated in his first term with USMCA. A main point in his plan is to place “punitive tariffs of 100 percent or higher on cars from Mexico,” a policy that would both hurt Mexico’s economy and make cars more expensive for American consumers [13]. With Trump’s new anti-free trade rhetoric, and Sheinbaum’s potential upending of USMCA, the two leaders suggest a shift away from free trade–a move that would not only harm their countries' economies but also increase prices on a wide range of goods.

In all, Claudia Sheinbaum’s record is one marked by illiberalism and strong anti-free trade ideology. Though she has portrayed herself as a progressive throughout her career, many of her policies—such as limiting the independence of the judiciary and rolling back free trade—would steer Mexico in a regressive direction. With Donald Trump's victory, the future of the U.S.-Mexico relationship is uncertain, but it will most likely be one dominated by hostility on the issues of immigration and trade. From the courts, to trade, to foreign policy, the free world should be very concerned with what Sheinbaum’s leadership could mean for Mexico.